The New Top-25 in Fantasy Football

If you were drafting today, who would your Top-25 be and why? Here’s my list, and while no one’s drafting now, it’s important to gauge ROS value and be aggressive on the trade blocks.

GRUBBS’ TOP-25:

1. Demarco Murray- On pace for 416 carries. That would tie the all-time mark set by Larry Johnson.  Jason Garrett keep saying that he’s going to start restricting Murray’s carries… maybe all those fumbles will provide some added incentive (a ridiculous 4 fumbles in 5 games would get you benched almost anywhere in the league).  He’s never carried it more than 220 times in a season before.  Still, the elite production is undeniable and injuries happen to everyone not named Brett Favre in the NFL.
2. Matt Forte- The TDs will come, the yardage is undeniable.  Best RB awareness in the NFL.  Almsot always makes the right decision with and without the ball in his hands.  Safest pick to finish as the top-fantasy player going forward. 
3. Marshawn Lynch- Worth keeping a close eye on that balky back… no we’re not buying the sideline reports that the heating pad and stationary bike were meaningless as Lynch was a spectator on the Seahawks first drive.  As far as eating crow with some humble pie for dessert, I was clearly wrong about Lynch’s decline, just like much of the fantasy industry.

4. Jamaal Charles- Two times in the first five weeks Andy Reid admits that he didn’t get the ball to Charles enough.  Sigh*
5. Le’Veon Bell- Mike Munchak has done wonders with this O-line, if the Steelers would quit getting cute by trying to target Antonio Brown so much near the goal-line and let Bell tote the rock, I’d have him ranked in the top three. 
6. Antonio Brown- Despite his diminutive stature, he’s also a red-zone target because of his immense lateral agility.  Plus, Big Ben forces the ball to him early and often.
7. Jordy Nelson- It’s good to be the number one receiver in an elite offense with cush schedule coming up.  Jordy and Aaron go together like peas and carrots. 
8. Julio Jones- He’s the most talented receiver in the league when Calvin Johnson’s sidelined.  You’d have to go all the way back to 2012 to find the last time he didn’t record at least 80 yards or a TD.  Straight cash, homie.
9. Demaryus Thomas- After all the talk of his slow start, he’s on pace to put up a career high in yardage and catch 12 TDs.  What a difference a week makes, an all-time Broncos receiving record (226 yds, 2 TDs) kind of week… but still just a week.  
10. Peyton Manning- The consistency is just too hard to deny despite QB depth across the league. With such elite weapons, he simply always performs.
11. Dez Bryant- He’s as good as ever, but this whole “run game efficiency” and “Dallas defense turning out to be decent” thing is kind of cramping his style a bit. 
12. Eddie Lacy- Averaged 3.8 yards per carry after contact this week when he finally got a soft matchup.  After starting the season with perhaps the most brutal RB matchup over the first 3 weeks, he will now face @MIA, CAR, @NO, Bye, CHI, PHI, @MIN, NE, as well as ATL, @BUF, @TB during fantasy playoffs.  Only Buffalo and NE look like tough match-ups.  The buy-low window might not be fully closed after just one good week.  He can fall into the end zone twice on any given week even if his yardage wanes a tad. 
13. Gio Bernard-  A.J. Green’s toe injury was just re-aggravated in practice and he was carted off, music to Gio owner’s ears.  Even with Jeremy Hill getting some more looks as the season wears on, he’s one of the top backs in the league. 
14. Jimmy Graham- His totals of 376 yds and 3 TDs mirror the ho-hum start that the Saints have had.  As long as he comes out healthy from the shoulder injury after the bye week, he’ll put up elite numbers.
15. Arian Foster- His hamstrings and related back injuries scare the bejesus out of me.  However, we saw last week that when he’s healthy enough to go… he’s bankable, and there’s just not many bankable RBs in the league these days. 
16. Andrew Luck- Highest Pass/Run ratio in the league, most total plays (378) in the NFL, elite weapons, mediocre defense keeping him throwing.  Why do some still complain about his mediocre YPA?
17. Aaron Rodgers- After rough start and tough schedule, hard to deny him moving forward.  He’s one solid TE away from being in Peyton Mannings’ category.  The last-place rate in plays per game (58.4) has nowhere to go but up.  
18. Julius Thomas- Pace of 904 yds and 28 TDs on 80 receptions. Talk about an unsustainable rate.  Still, hitched to the Peyton Manning show, he’s an elite difference maker at a position that’s been decimated by injuries.
19. Rob Gronkowski- Gronk’s rounding into form just like he promised.  If the injuries stay at bay, he’ll be a top-10 player by season’s end.  If it weren’t for his violent style of play that brings on injury, I’d have him ranked higher than Graham.  His per game averages throughout his career are matched by no one.
20. Alshon Jeffery- One spot ahead of Marshall due to the clean bill of health.  Trestman finds unique ways to get his best players the ball. 
21. Brandon Marshall-  I think the ankle issue is on the mend, and you can probably acquire him at a discount from a fed up owner.  Cutler looks his way often near the goal-line.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Marshall catches the most TD’s in the league from this point forward.  Despite the injury he still has a healthy 7 targets in the end zone.
22. Andre Ellington- 144 yards and 2 TDs on 20 touches this week,  hopefully has Carson Palmer coming back soon.  Could be Jamaal Charles 2.0 if they get him the ball often and the QB situation stabilizes.
23. Randall Cobb- Rodgers actually trusts him in the red zone, unlike most smaller slot receivers.  He’s a poor man’s Antonio Brown.  Expect the TD pace to fade, but the yardage to pick-up.  As noted above, the schedule is going to be a thing of beauty going forward.
24. LeSean McCoy- Shady has a league-high 19 stuffs at the line of scrimmage, and Lane Johnson coming back isn’t going to fully fix this line that’s still missing two starters on the interior.  I’m holding if I got him, but I’m running out of hope that he’ll be a RB1 this season.  I just can’t give the buy-low stamp of approval because of what it will likely cost to acquire him.
25. Alfred Morris-  Fullback: Darrell Young and Air Back: Roy Helu continue to snipe some quality touches away from Morris.  The Seahawks made him look pretty awful on Monday night, but they tend to do that to everyone. I still have faith in Alf for the remainder of the season.

First Alternate: Jeremy Maclin- Most targets per game at 11.6 is hard to deny, which is why I gave him this spot.  Chip Kelly offenses are going to be very fantasy friendly for years to come, and Maclin looks healthy and ready to roll for the first time in a long while.

INJURED:

• A.J. Green just reportedly got carted off at practice after re-injuring his toe. Things don’t look good for him playing this week.  What’s even scarier is that he had the full bye-week to heal before this past game, which may mean they’ll rest him for a couple of weeks to try to prevent future setbacks occurring again.  He was at number 14 on my list before the news broke, for what it’s worth. 
• Calvin Johnson is someone that I just can’t put in my top-25 right now.  From the decoy usage, to the possibly of him sitting out a couple of games, it’s just hard to know how things are going to shake out over the next month.  Caldwell wants that high ankle sprain to heal, I could see Calvin sitting out two games and taking another two before he’s back to being “Megatron.”  Two tough breaks for the Zero-RB guys with these two injuries.  

Wide Receiver Ramblings:

• Emmanuel Sanders, T.Y. Hilton, and Andre Johnson are the only receivers with over 320 yards receiving that also haven’t found paydirt.  I could see Manny Sanders leading the NFL in receiving yardage (108.8 y/g) and yet we might still count his TD total on only one hand.  He has only 11 career TDs despite playing 60 games.  He will find the end zone, but with the Thomas’s (Julius and Demaryus), there’s little reason to force him the ball near the goal-line.  
• T.Y. Hilton has traditionally been a boom or bust receiver throughout his career; this year he couldn’t be farther from that.  A steady performer, his receptions by game have been 5, 6, 5, 6, and 9.  His receiving yards by game have been 41, 65, 80, 105, and 90.  The TDs will come, and perhaps in bunches like in years past.  Regardless, Andrew Luck’s progress insures that Hilton is going to be a solid WR2 moving forward.  Target him before the TDs start flooding in.
• The third man on the list, Andre Johnson is one that you have to aggressively try to move.  He’s barely startable going forward, and it’s only a matter of time before DeAndre Hopkins fully takes over that WR1 role.  I realize he won’t fetch much on the trade market, but I’d take pennies on the dollar at this point.  He’s never been even an above average TD producer throughout his career, despite being an elite talent, and he’s also seen more than his fair share of injuries in recent seasons.  Abandon ship while it’s still afloat.
• The Percy Harvin catastrophe of having three TD plays called back on Monday night was both heart-breaking and funny to watch at the same time.  Despite his excellent hypothetical fantasy field-day, I’m still not convinced.  He’s not used down-field enough, and the injury issues WILL crop up, and with those Pacific time-zone game-time decisions lurking over the second half of the season, you’re going to have a headache on your hands.  I’m not convinced he’s a buy-low guy.
• Call me a glutton for punishment, but I still believe Keenan Allen is going to have a very productive year moving forward.  Remember, it wasn’t until about week 5 last year that people began getting Allen into their lineups, and he still put up an amazing stat line.  He’s going to be fine, and Rivers is going to get him the ball.
• Brandin Cooks is tied for 20th at the WR position in targets per game with 8.2, the problem is his yards per reception sits at a dismal 8.0.  He’s truly taken over the Darren Sproles role of this offense in the fact that all of his receptions seem to come on short routes and dump off passes.  He’s simply not going downfield, which makes him more valuable in PPR leagues.  Still, he’s on pace for a shade over 800 yards in the air and 200 on the ground.  No rookie receiver has ever caught 100 balls and he’s on pace for 102.

You can follow Logan Grubbs on twitter @NotFakeFantasy

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